Who does the official dating of recessions
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The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the period.
The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee.
the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is).
Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data.
We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods.